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U.S. Yields at 2% Make Trader Wonder Where Animal Spirits Are

©2016 Bloomberg News
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(Bloomberg) — Treasury benchmark yields that fell to 2 percent this month are raising concern the U.S. economy is losing momentum.

Yields have tumbled as a global stock-market rout, tumbling crude oil prices and falling inflation expectations combined to send money managers to the haven of government securities. While the U.S. is adding jobs, manufacturing is contracting. Investors are scaling back forecasts for how much the Federal Reserve can raise interest rates.

“The American economy has lost its animal spirits,” said Hideaki Kuriki, a bond investor in Tokyo at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management, which oversees $55 billion. “The potential growth rate of the American economy is going down. Longer term, yields may go down.”

Treasuries fell for the first time in five days on Tuesday with the benchmark 10-year note yield climbing two basis points to 2.06 percent as of 9:30 a.m. in Tokyo, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The price of the 2.25 percent security due in November 2025 dropped 5/32, or $1.56 per $1,000 face amount, to 101 3/4.

The yield dropped to dropped to 1.98 percent last week, reaching a three-month low and thwarting analysts who projected the benchmark would rise after the Fed increased rates in December. Treasuries resumed trading in Asia Tuesday after being closed worldwide Monday for a U.S. holiday.

The flight to quality eased Tuesday as U.S. stock index futures rose, said Kazuaki Oh’E, head of fixed income at CIBC World Markets Japan Inc. in Tokyo.

Economist John Maynard Keynes used the term “animal spirits” to describe the importance of consumer confidence in driving business activity.

To contact the reporter on this story: Wes Goodman in Singapore at wgoodman@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tomoko Yamazaki at tyamazaki@bloomberg.net Nicholas Reynolds

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Men of Value Contributor

Men of Value Contributor

Articles by various contributors to Men of Value, an online magazine for American men who value our Judeo-Christian values of faith, family, and freedom.

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