published Apr 11, 2018 5:41:56 PM, by Jennifer Jacobs and Robert Hutton
(Bloomberg) —

President Donald Trump is still weighing options for U.S. military action against Syria as Western powers rallied against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad over an apparent chemical weapons attack near Damascus.

Pentagon chief Jim Mattis and other members of Trump’s national security team met Wednesday, after the president warned Russia on Twitter to expect a missile barrage toward its ally, Syria, saying “You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!”

Despite the rhetoric, the president hasn’t decided how to retaliate against Assad, White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders told reporters Wednesday, adding that the president has been in talks with a number of key allies in recent days.
“We’re maintaining that we have a number of options and all of those options are still on the table,” Sanders said when asked about the possibility of military action. “Final decisions haven’t been made yet on that front.”

As tensions in the Middle East mounted, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May called an emergency Cabinet meeting for Thursday to discuss the British response to the apparent chemical weapons attack in Douma, a town controlled by Syrian rebels. And the French weekly Le Point reported that one of the country’s warships in the eastern Mediterranean was “aggressively” buzzed by a Russian plane.

The White House said that Trump would coordinate his response with French President Emmanuel Macron, while May said she had little doubt — despite Syrian and Russian protests to the contrary — that Assad’s government was to blame for what happened in Douma.

“All the indications are that the Syrian regime was responsible,” she told reporters on Wednesday. “We will be working with our closest allies on how we can ensure that those who are responsible are held to account. The continued use of chemical weapons cannot go unchallenged.”

The prospect of direct participation by France — and possibly other allies such as the U.K. and Saudi Arabia — would provide greater legitimacy for a large operation that otherwise would risk criticism as violating international law, said Andrew Bell, an assistant professor at Indiana University who focuses on international security and the law of armed conflict. A broader coalition helps build the case for a humanitarian mandate, he said.

Trump made his views clear on Wednesday, saying on Twitter that relations with Russia have never been worse and warning Moscow about an incoming fusillade.

“Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and ‘smart!,’” Trump wrote.

Trump’s remarks weighed on investors already concerned about war. Oil prices surged to the highest level in more than three years in New York. Turkey, which has troops in Syria, saw its currency weaken to a record, while the Borsa Istanbul 100 Index for stocks reversed gains to drop 1.3 percent. Saudi Arabia’s main stock index also extended its decline.

Separately, Saudi Arabia said it intercepted a ballistic missile over Riyadh and shot down two drones in another part of the country on Wednesday, in the latest attacks by pro-Iranian rebels in Yemen.

Mattis, who was spotted alongside CIA Director Mike Pompeo at the White House on Wednesday, said he stands “ready to provide military options if appropriate.”

A strike that hits Russian assets in Syria — even if unintentionally — could result in a dangerous game of one-upmanship, potentially dragging the U.S. further into a conflict the president wants to leave. Russia has strengthened Syria’s air-defense capabilities, deploying S-400 missile batteries after the U.S. struck a Syrian base a year ago.

‘Fictitious’ Attack

“The risk of military conflict between Russia and the U.S. in Syria is very high,” said Elena Suponina, a Mideast analyst at the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies, which counsels the Kremlin. “If Trump takes this step and Russian citizens are harmed, the reaction will be very harsh.”

Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, told reporters that Russia continues to believe allegations of a chemical weapons attack are “fictitious” and are being used as an excuse for military action.

“We don’t take part in Twitter diplomacy, we are supporters of serious approaches,” Peskov said. “We still believe that it’s important not to take steps that can harm the already fragile situation in Syria.”

Despite Trump’s harsh rhetoric, any strike is more likely to focus on the forces on the ground, the perpetrators of the apparent chemical attack — Syrian troops, Lebanese Hezbollah militants and allied Iranian-backed militias, said Sami Nader, head of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs in Beirut.

‘Arrogant Escalation’

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a U.K.-based organization, said Syrian government forces were vacating airports and some key military positions in anticipation of an American-led strike.

Syria’s Foreign Ministry said it was “not surprised by this arrogant escalation by a country like the United States, which has supported terrorism in Syria.” An unidentified ministry official cited by state-run TV accused the Americans of sponsoring the lies of “terrorists” as a pretext to attack Syria.

Syrian media showed Assad, in a dark suit and tie, with participants at a conference on Muslim unity in Damascus. In the footage, Assad told his guests that the unity of Muslims “will guarantee the protection of our societies against Western plots to weaken and divide us.” He didn’t mention the American threats.

Trump lashed out at Russia after its ambassador to Lebanon, Alexander Zasypkin, told Hezbollah’s Al Manar TV that any rockets that threaten Russian forces “will be downed as well as the sources of those rockets.”

In March, Valery Gerasimov, chief of Russia’s General Staff, warned that “in the event a threat arises to the lives of our servicemen, the Armed Forces of Russia will take retaliatory measures against both missiles and the carriers that use them.”

Investors Worried

Eurocontrol, a European air traffic agency, asked airlines to apply caution on flights to the eastern Mediterranean region because of possible air strikes in Syria.

This is the second time in a year that Washington is gearing to respond militarily in Syria. This time, Trump is under pressure to hit harder and take bigger risks than the attack in April 2017, which was limited to a single Syrian base and left little lasting damage.

“It’s unlikely that another set of one-off strikes will deter Assad,” said Jennifer Cafarella, a Syria analyst at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington. Trump needs to “establish a more effective deterrent by inflicting greater costs on Assad and perhaps his backers.”

With assistance from Donna Abu-Nasr, Gregory Viscusi, Ilya Arkhipov, Daniel Flatley and Tony Capaccio.To contact the reporters on this story: Jennifer Jacobs in Washington at jjacobs68@bloomberg.net ;Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Wayne at awayne3@bloomberg.net ;Bill Faries at wfaries@bloomberg.net

copyright
© 2018 Bloomberg L.P