published Dec 18, 2018, 6:03:45 PM, by Yuko Takeo(Bloomberg) —

Japan’s exports eked out a tiny gain in November, yet the longer-term outlook remains clouded by trade-war risks and easing demand in China.

The value of shipments abroad rose 0.1 percent from a year earlier, broadly in line with a forecast 1.2 percent gain, according to the finance ministry.

Key Insights

The numbers are mildly encouraging for Japan, which has depended on exports to bolster growth amid disappointing demand at home. Shipments to China, Japan’s biggest trading partner, rose 0.4 percent as that nation’s growth slows. Next year is shaping up as particularly challenging for Japan, with the question of U.S. car tariffs still looming and with Tokyo officials set to discuss a trade deal with the Washington counterparts. As as a counterweight to this, the Japan-led TPP-11 trade agreement kicks off at the end of this year and Japan’s pact with Europe may take effect in February. 

What Our Economists Says…

“Looking ahead, the signals on trade are mixed,” said Bloomberg Economics’  Yuki Masujima, ahead of the data release. “Cheaper oil is likely to curb import values. At the same time, though, exports could face headwinds from the U.S.-China trade war, which threatens to depress supply-chain demand.”For more, see our  Asia Week Ahead

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Imports rose 12.5 percent, compared with 11.8 percent median forecast from economists. The trade balance was a deficit of 737 billion yen, versus the 630 billion yen deficit expected by economists. Exports to the U.S. rose 1.6 percent while shipments to Europe gained 3.9 percent. 

To contact the reporter on this story: Yuko Takeo in Tokyo at ytakeo2@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Brett Miller at bmiller30@bloomberg.net Henry HoenigCOPYRIGHT © 2018 Bloomberg L.P