U.S. Stocks Resume Selloff as Crude Tumbles, Stimulus Questioned
(Bloomberg) —A rebound rally Monday was just a brief reprieve for U.S. stocks, as a selloff resumed amid renewed weakness in crude oil and as investors remained on edge over central banks’ ability to bolster growth.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 250 points as energy producers and phone companies led the declines. Banks dropped the most in two months, with Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc. sinking at least 2.2 percent. Apple Inc. was the only Dow member to climb, rising 2.6 percent on signs of strong pre-orders for the iPhone 7.
The S&P 500 Index fell 1.6 percent to 2,125.26 at 11:53 a.m. in New York, erasing the strongest rally in two months yesterday. The Dow lost 255.58 points, or 1.4 percent, to 18,069.49, and the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 1.3 percent. West Texas Intermediate crude futures sank 2.9 percent as the International Energy Agency changed its view on the global oversupply, seeing a glut persisting into 2017.
“Yesterday’s price action was more of a reflexive bounce — there’s still a great deal of nervousness,” said Alan Gayle, a senior strategist at RidgeWorth Investments in Atlanta, which has about $37 billion in assets. “The report showing that the oil surplus could go longer than expected is weighing on the market from a growth perspective, and the political climate has gotten gradually more tense. It’s all being reflected in stock market today.”
Equities retraced a surge spurred yesterday by Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard who urged continued “prudence” in raising interest rates. That helped reverse a rout sparked Friday by mounting concern that monetary stimulus is losing its effectiveness. A rally in Asian stocks overnight faded, even after Monday’s strong U.S. rebound and as data showed China’s economy strengthened in July.
Financial markets were jolted out of a period of relative calm by signs central banks globally may be questioning the need for greater stimulus. The S&P 500 fell 2.5 percent Friday, the worst in more than two months, after Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren indicated a willingness to raise interest rates. Until then, the S&P 500 had traded tightly near an Aug. 15 record, not moving more than one percent in either direction for nine weeks.
The CBOE Volatility Index jumped nearly 22 percent Tuesday, toward a two-month high after falling 13 percent a day earlier. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX spiked on Friday by the most since Britain’s June vote to exit the European Union.
The chances of a Fed rate hike at next week’s meeting dropped by eight percentage points to 22 percent after Brainard signaled her reluctance to raise borrowing costs, even while acknowledging that the U.S. economy was making gradual progress toward achieving the authority’s goals. December remains the first month with at least even odds of a rate hike.
Investors also continue to wrestle with extended valuations as companies in the S&P 500 are forecast to post a sixth consecutive quarterly profit decline. The index trades at 18.4 times estimated earnings, the highest since 2002.
Before next week’s Fed meeting, economic data will move into focus, with readings in the next three days on retail sales, initial jobless claims, inflation, consumer and business sentiment, as well as industrial production.
“It seems like the market is split over whether we want higher rates or if we want lower rates,” Thomas Garcia, head of equity trading at Thornburg Investment Management Inc. in Santa Fe, New Mexico, said by phone. “There are those that are for higher rates so that if the economy does take a header we have a lever to pull, and the other side says the economy outside the U.S. isn’t healthy enough. There really isn’t a consensus.”
In Tuesday’s trading, all of the S&P 500’s 10 main industries dropped, with energy, phone, raw-materials and financial companies losing more than 2 percent. Along with banks’ worst day since early July, real-estate firms fell toward a three-month low as financials were the biggest drag on the index.
–With assistance from Camila Russo. To contact the reporters on this story: Joseph Ciolli in New York at jciolli@bloomberg.net ;Oliver Renick in New York at orenick2@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Cecile Vannucci at cvannucci1@bloomberg.net John Shipman, Alan Soughley
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