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(Bloomberg) — The most harmonious period in China-Taiwan ties will be tested in the coming presidential election as a candidate from a pro-independence party leads the polls.

While opposition leader Tsai Ing-wen has vowed to maintain cordial relations with Taiwan’s increasingly powerful former foe, her party retains independence as an official goal — something China would consider a hostile act. Her main opponent, the ruling Kuomintang’s Hung Hsiu-chu, has swung the other way, calling for a peace deal with the Communist Party to formally end a civil war the two sides started 70 years ago.

Relations between Taipei and Beijing are at their strongest since Chiang Kai-shek and his KMT party fled the mainland in 1949. President Ma Ying-jeou, in power since 2008, has signed 21 trade deals with China, which now represents almost one-third of Taiwan’s overseas commerce. Neither side wants a return to hostilities that could also drag in the U.S.

“If Hung wins, the normalized means of exchanges will continue,” said Alexander Huang, an assistant professor at Tamkang University. “If Tsai wins, it may take a bit of an exploring, testing and a more circuitous route.”

The KMT has suffered at home amid scandals, slower growth and resistance to greater China ties, including the withdrawal of debate on a services trade pact last year after student protesters occupied the island’s parliament. Ma, who’s barred from a third term, was forced to step down as party chief in December after Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party won big in local elections.
Tsai’s the favorite to succeed Ma after losing to him in 2012. The former London School of Economics-educated law professor holds a 12-point lead over Hung, according to a poll conducted on Sunday by the TVBS cable news network.

One China

“The Kuomintang has had a lot problems,” said Warren Lin, 42, a manager at a metal manufacturing company, who’s leaning toward supporting Tsai. “But if we had the DPP — even if they were capable — their stance on cross-strait relations is a concern.”

Many on the island of 23.5 million remember the flare-ups with China a decade ago, when the last DPP president, Chen Shui- bian, sought a referendum on statehood. The Communist Party, which has 1,200 missiles pointed at Taiwan, responded by passing a law authorizing “non-peaceful means” to prevent secession.

The DPP has historically rejected the “One China” principle that the People’s Republic of China and the Kuomintang have agreed on since 1992. Both sides agree there’s only one China, even if they differ on what that means.

Status Quo

Tsai, who served as a deputy premier under Chen, hasn’t endorsed the One China policy, although she supports continued cross-strait relations.

“We do have a broad consensus in Taiwan, that is, the maintenance of the status quo,” Tsai said while in Washington in June. She also pushed back at China, saying, “I will uphold the right of the people to decide their future free of coercion.”
A KMT defeat could derail seven years of progress toward the Communist Party’s ultimate goal, reunification. Chinese President Xi Jinping told a Ma envoy in 2013 that they can’t keep passing the problem “from generation to generation.”
Communist Party leaders have watched the unfolding campaign cautiously, issuing only the occasional statement demanding that Tsai endorse the One China policy.

Rational Votes

“The Chinese mainland has never voiced its opinions on Taiwan’s general elections during these years,” the Global Times, a newspaper affiliated with the party’s People’s Daily, wrote in an editorial Monday. “Taiwan voters have grown more rational after all these years, and this rationality will be conveyed through their votes.”

William Stanton, director of National Tsing Hua University’s Center for Asia Policy, said Taiwan’s growing economic dependence on its neighbor puts China at greater ease with the DPP. “Even though Xi Jinping is a much tougher guy, saying that the status quo can’t be indefinite, I think they still think that time is on their side,” Stanton said.

The KMT’s choice of Hung complicates matters. The deputy legislative leader and former middle school teacher was officially nominated by the party in Taipei on Sunday, after others including KMT Chairman Eric Chu bowed out. Hung has advocated even closer ties, including signing a peace treaty with Beijing — putting her at odds with most Taiwanese.

Political Resolution

“The fruits of economic exchange haven’t brought about political resolution,” Hung said in a campaign policy paper. “If we don’t resolve our political differences, there can be no lasting and peaceful development.”

Almost 45 percent of Taiwanese believe cross-strait relations are progressing at the right pace, while 29 percent think they’re moving too quickly, according to a survey of more than 1,000 people released last week by Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council. Only 15 percent want ties to move faster.

Scott Huang, 41, a manager at a Taipei securities firm, who has voted for both KMT and DPP presidents, said he’s leaning toward Tsai — provided she follows through on the services trade pact Ma couldn’t enact.
“The deal is very important to the liberalization of the financial industry,” Huang said. “Taiwan’s opening to China has been a bit too rushed and dramatic, but if Tsai were to shut the door, that won’t work either.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Debra Mao in Taipei at dmao5@bloomberg.net; Miaojung Lin in Taipei at mlin179@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: John Liu at jliu42@bloomberg.net; Rosalind Mathieson at rmathieson3@bloomberg.net Brendan Scott, Greg Ahlstrand